I just want to peek at KB homes stock quickly ( above chart):

It didn’t do as well as Pulte, the largest US builder.


These charts tells us that the market felt that US had a double dip recession in 2010-11 and a third mild recession in 2015-6 from the oil crash.

Going further back, I notice that these deep cyclical stocks totally missed the 2000-2003 general bear market. So it is more important to find and catch the right  industry, sectors, or countries  that are doing well, and simply forget the overall stock market.

As Fed tightens more into 2019, these cyclicals will come back down  again as have the REIT’s. These two industries usually move together in previous tightening cycles, but not this time. Yield seekers clung onto expensive REIT’s, while they avoided home builders in 2015-6. However, the movements in 2017 does look like repeat of 1999-2000. So a big tech correction is near or here already.